Onder 4.20. Rechtbank Den Haag 24 juni 2015

In AR4/2007, the IPCC has established that in order to achieve the 2 °C target the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have to be stabilised at 450 ppm, which will be referred to below as “the 450 scenario”. It is not disputed between the Parties that there is a 50% chance of achieving the climate target with the 450 scenario. The signatories to the UN Climate Change Convention have reported about the 450 scenario by making a reference to the AR4/2007 in the Bali Action Plan (the COP decision of 2007). The court does not deduce an explicit choice for the 450 scenario from this reference. The section referred to (see 2.16) shows that the signatories are at least focused on a scenario in which emissions are stabilised at a level of 450–550 ppm. The pleadings and other documents show that in 2007 the European institutions started from the idea that the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere would have to remain well below 550 ppm and in the long term would have to stabilise at a level of about 450 ppm. As evidenced by these documents, this would mean that global emissions will reach a peak in 2025 and subsequently should decrease to 50% by 2050 (see 2.60).

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